Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca vs Beatrice Stagno

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for home (36.4%) appears too low given similar player profiles
• • A 45% true probability produces an EV of ~0.238 per unit at 2.75

Pros

• + Price (2.75) offers significant upside if parity assumption holds
• + Research shows no clear performance edge for the favorite

Cons

• - Both players have generally poor recent results, increasing upset variance
• - Lack of head-to-head, ranking, or injury detail means residual uncertainty

Details

We see both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form on hard and clay, with no clear advantage shown in the available data. The market prices Beatrice Stagno as a strong favorite at 1.40 (implied ~71%), but the research does not demonstrate a material performance gap that justifies that level of favoritism. Given parity in results, surfaces played, and recent losses for both, we estimate Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca's true win probability materially above the market-implied 36.4% for her 2.75 quote. At a conservative true probability of 45%, the 2.75 price yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.238 per unit). We therefore identify the home underdog as a value play at the current widely-available price.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical overall records (10-21) in the provided profiles
• • Recent form for both on hard surfaces is weak with recent losses
• • No head-to-head or injury information provided to justify heavy market favorite
• • Market implies a much larger gap than the research supports