Highlights

• • Implied away probability 98.6% is not supported by the player profiles
• • At our 48% estimate the home side yields a very large positive EV at current odds

Pros

• + Huge positive expected value based on available data
• + Market mispricing is extreme and clear from implied probabilities

Cons

• - Extremely short favorite suggests either a data/line error or unreported information we don't have
• - High variance outcome: longshot wins are low-probability events despite strong EV

Details

We see a glaring market mispricing: the away moneyline (1.014) implies a ~98.6% chance, and the home price (45.06) implies only ~2.22% — a probability that is incompatible with the research. Both players show nearly identical career records (559-507) and very similar recent results in the provided data, with no injury flags or surface-specific dominance noted. Given symmetric profiles and no evidence favoring an overwhelming favorite, we estimate the true chance for the home player to win at 48%. At the quoted home decimal 45.06 this produces enormous positive expectation: EV = 0.48 * 45.06 - 1 = 20.629 (per unit staked). We used the current home price of 45.06 to compute the EV; even with a conservative true probability well below our base estimate, the home side remains value (break-even true probability at these odds is ~2.22%).

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and the provided recent results show no clear advantage
• • Market implies an almost-certain away win (98.6%) which contradicts the symmetric data
• • No injury or surface evidence in the research to justify a blowout; therefore large underdog odds look mispriced