Highlights

• • Sofia is the clear favorite by experience and career record, but not at 1.11 implied probability.
• • Required odds for positive EV on our estimate: ≥1.282 (market is currently much shorter).

Pros

• + Sofia's long-term winning record and experience advantage over Nicole
• + Nicole's limited match history and lower overall win rate

Cons

• - Recent listed results show losses for both players — Sofia does not appear dominant enough to justify 1.11
• - Market short price leaves no margin for error; small model/probability deviations flip EV negative

Details

We compare the market price (Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez at 1.11, implied 90.1%) to a realistic estimated win probability based on the provided profiles. Sofia has a long, winning career record (559-507) and clearly the superior experience versus Nicole Poj (10-21), which makes her the logical favorite. However, Sofia's recent listed results show straight losses and Nicole's recent form is also poor; there is no evidence in the supplied research that Sofia is ~90% likely to win this match. Using a conservative, evidence-driven estimate of Sofia's true win probability at 78%, the market price of 1.11 is overpriced for the bookmaker (it implies ~90.1% chance). At the current quoted odds there is negative expected value (EV = 0.78 * 1.11 - 1 = -0.134), so we do not recommend backing Sofia at 1.11. To generate positive EV on our 78% estimate, decimal odds would need to be at least 1.282. Given the available prices, there is no value on either side.

Key factors

• • Sofia's large career sample and superior overall win record relative to Nicole
• • Both players show recent losses in the supplied recent-match lines — no clear form edge large enough to justify 90% market pricing
• • Current market odds (1.11) imply >90% chance for Sofia, which exceeds a realistic probability based on provided career and recent data