Highlights

• • Home implied probability 63.3% vs our estimate 72%
• • Estimated EV ~13.8% on a 1-unit stake at current odds

Pros

• + Clear negative indicators for the away player (10-21 career record, recent losses)
• + Current market price (1.58) leaves room for value if Sofia is even moderately favored

Cons

• - No direct data provided on Sofia Markova (form, surface, injuries), increasing uncertainty
• - Match surface and other contextual factors are unknown and could shift probabilities

Details

We compare the market price (Sofia Markova 1.58, implied ~63.3%) to our assessment based only on the provided research. The only concrete player information available is Anna Marie Weissheim's profile: a short career (31 matches) with a 10-21 record and recent results showing multiple losses, which indicate below-average form and a reduced probability of winning. Given that Anna appears to have limited winning momentum and overall poor results, we assign Sofia a materially higher win probability than the market-implied 63.3%. Using a conservative true probability for Sofia of 72.0%, the bet at current decimal odds 1.58 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.72 * 1.58 - 1 = 0.138). We acknowledge uncertainty because we have no direct data on Sofia Markova (ranking, form, surface preference) and the match surface/conditions are unknown; this is reflected in a medium risk assessment.

Key factors

• • Anna Marie Weissheim career record 10-21 suggests weak overall results
• • Recent listed matches for Anna show multiple losses, indicating poor form
• • Market-implied probability for Sofia (1.58) is ~63.3%; we estimate ~72% true chance