Sofia Costoulas vs Gina Marie Dittmann

Highlights

• • Book market implies an 88.5% chance for the favorite — we judge this unrealistic.
• • At our 30% estimate, the away price 5.4 yields a large positive EV (62%).

Pros

• + Strong overlay vs. our probability model (current odds >> fair odds)
• + Both players have similar measurable form and surface history, supporting an underdog case

Cons

• - Limited distinguishing data and no H2H increases uncertainty in the true probability estimate
• - Lower-tier matches are noisy; large variance could still favor the favorite in a short format

Details

We see a large market skew to Sofia Costoulas at 1.13 (implied ~88.5%), but the research shows both players have nearly identical profiles (career records 10-21, similar surfaces and recent form). There is no clear evidence of a decisive edge for Costoulas that would justify an ~88% win probability. We estimate Gina Marie Dittmann's true win probability at 30% based on parity in records, surface experience, and the high-variance nature of lower-tier events where lines can be overstretched. At the quoted away price of 5.4 this yields EV = 0.30 * 5.4 - 1 = 0.62 (62% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum decimal odds required for this probability are 3.333; the current 5.4 offers substantial overlay/value versus our estimate.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and experience on clay/hard — little objective gap
• • Market price heavily favors the home (implied ~88.5%) which appears overstated given available form data
• • Lower-tier tournaments and inconsistent recent results increase match variance and underdog upside