Sofia Costoulas vs Polina Iatcenko
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected: market overstates the home favorite (1.68) relative to our 52% estimate; we'd need ~1.923 or longer to consider a bet.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 59.5% vs our estimate 52.0%
- • Required fair odds for value on home: 1.923; current 1.68 is too short
Pros
- + Both players' publicly available records and recent form are similar, reducing upside surprises
- + Market margin (overround) is noticeable, indicating bookmakers are pricing conservatively
Cons
- - Insufficient differentiation in the supplied research to justify backing the favorite at 1.68
- - No H2H, injury, or extra contextual data in the provided sources to shift the probability materially
Details
We find no value at current market prices. Both players have nearly identical profiles in the provided data (career records 10-21, similar recent results and surfaces played), so we view this as effectively an even matchup with only a small home tilt. The market prices Sofia Costoulas at 1.68 (implied 59.5%) and Polina Iatcenko at 2.08 (implied 48.1%); those imply a combined overround of ~7.6%. Our estimated true win probability for the home player is 52.0%, which implies fair decimal odds of 1.923. To be profitable we would need at least 1.923 on the home side; the current 1.68 is materially shorter and yields a negative EV (≈ -0.126). The away price (2.08) implies ~48.1% and is roughly in line or slightly longer than our neutral estimate, but we have no objective reason from the supplied research to favor the away player sufficiently to claim positive EV at 2.08. Therefore we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Nearly identical career records and recent form for both players in the supplied data
- • Market prices give the home player a large edge (1.68 -> 59.5%) that is not supported by differentiating evidence
- • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the research to justify beating the market