Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca vs Maria Eduarda Lages
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the away (Maria Eduarda Lages) because the current price (3.69) implies a much lower win probability than warranted by her career record and experience, producing substantial positive EV at our conservative 52% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Market massively overestimates home player (1.249 implies ~80% chance)
- • At 3.69 the away side is priced to return positive EV even on conservative win estimates
Pros
- + Large historical sample and superior career win percentage for Maria
- + Current odds (3.69) are well above our breakeven odds (1.923)
Cons
- - Small-sample variability for Sofia could produce an upset (Sofia has fewer matches so variance is high)
- - Research shows recent losses for both players; form volatility and lack of H2H data add uncertainty
Details
We identify clear value on Maria Eduarda Lages. The market prices Sofia Da Cruz Mendonca at 1.249 (implied ~80%), which is inconsistent with the head-to-profile data: Sofia has a 10-21 career record (~32% win rate across 31 matches) while Maria has a long, proven career (559-507 across 1,066 matches, ~52.5% win rate). Recent form shown in the research lists losses for both, but Maria's depth of experience and substantially higher career winning percentage suggest she is considerably stronger. Conservatively we estimate Maria's true win probability at 52.0%, which is far above the implied 27.1% from the away price 3.69; at that price the bet has strong positive expected value. We used current widely-available moneyline 3.69 for the away side to compute EV.
Key factors
- • Maria's much larger sample size and higher career win rate (~52.5% vs ~32%)
- • Market implies away win probability of only ~27% (3.69) — likely a strong misprice
- • Recent results show both struggling, but experience edge favors Maria