Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez vs Katharina Hobgarski

Highlights

• • Market overestimates away player based on provided data
• • Home at 4.25 implies >3.33 required odds for break-even vs our 30% estimate

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our probability creates meaningful EV
• + Both players’ stats and recent results in the research do not justify a heavy favorite

Cons

• - Small and noisy sample of match-level stats in the research—uncertainty remains
• - If external factors not in the provided data favor Hobgarski (ranking, recent wins off-source), value would evaporate

Details

The market heavily favors the away player at 1.20 (implied ~83%). The provided profiles show the two players with nearly identical career records (both 10-21), overlapping surface experience (clay and hard) and recent poor form for both. The only match-level stats shown are mixed and do not justify an 83% win probability for Katharina Hobgarski. We therefore assign a materially higher chance to the home player (Sofia Elena Cabezas Dominguez) than the market does. Using a conservative estimated true probability for the home player of 30%, the current home decimal price of 4.25 produces positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 4.25 - 1 = 0.275). The away price of 1.20 offers no value against our assessment.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
• • Recent form in the supplied matches is poor for both players—no clear form edge
• • Market pricing (away at 1.20) implies an 83% chance for Hobgarski, which is not supported by the provided data