Sofia Kryvoruchko vs Georgia Kalamaris
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: the favorite's market price (1.04) is shorter than our assessed fair price (min required 1.053), and the underdog's price does not compensate for her weak form.
Highlights
- • Market implies Kryvoruchko ~96.2% to win; we estimate ~95.0%
- • Underdog Kalamaris's form and record make an upset unlikely at 11.5
Pros
- + Clear data on Kalamaris showing poor results and recent losses
- + Market price is widely available and easy to compare against our estimate
Cons
- - Very limited information on the favorite (Sofia Kryvoruchko) in the provided research
- - Small differences between market and our estimate increase sensitivity to estimation error
Details
We compared market prices to our assessed win probabilities. The market heavily favors Sofia Kryvoruchko at 1.04 (implied 96.15%). Based on Georgia Kalamaris's documented 10-21 career record and poor recent form, we estimate Kryvoruchko's true win probability at 95.0%, which is below the market-implied 96.15%, so the favorite is over-priced (no +EV). The away price 11.50 implies ~8.70% but Kalamaris's form and record suggest a much lower chance (~5%), so that side also lacks value. Given the short favorite price and the available data (which only covers Kalamaris), neither side offers positive expected value at current odds.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for the favorite (1.04) is ~96.15%, above our true estimate
- • Georgia Kalamaris has a 10-21 career record and recent poor form, lowering her upset chances
- • Very limited publicly provided information on Sofia Kryvoruchko increases uncertainty about overruns