Sofia Mendonca vs Maria Eduarda Lages
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: the market overstates the favorite relative to our conservative 68% estimate, producing negative EV at 1.364.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability 73.3% vs our estimate 68% → negative EV
- • Limited, mixed recent form data for Lages and no usable data on Sofia increases uncertainty
Pros
- + We avoid betting into a clear negative EV on the favorite
- + Conservative approach reduces risk from missing opponent/surface information
Cons
- - If Sofia is significantly weaker than market assumes, we may be missing a value opportunity
- - Limited data prevents a more granular model (sets, surface, recent match context)
Details
We compare the market price (Sofia Mendonca 1.364, implied win probability ~73.3%) to our assessment. The only detailed data available relates to Maria Eduarda Lages: a long career (559-507) but recent match snippets show losses and mixed form. With no head-to-head, no surface breakdown for Sofia, and limited recent positive signals for Lages, we conservatively estimate Sofia's true win probability at 68.0%. At the current home price (1.364) that implies EV = 0.68 * 1.364 - 1 = -0.0725 (negative), so there is no value on the favorite. The away price (2.85) implies ~35.1% but our read on Lages' current form and career profile puts her win chance below market-implied value, so no value on the underdog either. Given the information gap on Sofia and the negative EV at available prices, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market strongly favors home (1.364) but market-implied probability (73.3%) exceeds our estimate
- • Available data only profiles Maria Eduarda Lages (veteran, career ~52% win rate) with recent mixed/losing results
- • Lack of verifiable form/surface/H2H information for Sofia Mendonca increases model uncertainty