Sofiia Nagornaia vs Justine Bryson
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The offered price for Nagornaia (1.276) overstates her win probability relative to her recent form and career record; we find no value and recommend no bet at current odds.
Highlights
- • Nagornaia’s historical win rate (~33%) is far below the market-implied ~78%
- • To be +EV you would need decimal odds of ~3.03 or higher on Nagornaia
Pros
- + Clear, conservative estimate based on provided career and recent-form data
- + Avoids betting into a market price that appears disconnected from available performance indicators
Cons
- - Limited data provided on the opponent (Justine Bryson) prevents a fuller comparative assessment
- - If there are unreported factors (injury to Bryson, surface specifics, home conditions), our estimate could be off
Details
We estimate Nagornaia's true chance to win this match substantially lower than the market-implied probability. Her career record in the provided data is 10-21 (31 matches) and recent form shows multiple recent losses, suggesting a long-term win rate around ~32–33%. The current moneyline of 1.276 implies an implied win probability of ~78.4%, which is far above any realistic probability supported by the available performance data. With no information provided on Justine Bryson to suggest significant decline or injury, we cannot justify backing the heavy favorite at the offered price. Therefore there is no positive expected value on Nagornaia at the current odds.
Key factors
- • Nagornaia career record 10-21 (31 matches) implies ~32–33% historical win rate
- • Recent match list shows multiple recent losses, indicating poor current form
- • Market strongly favors Nagornaia (implied ~78.4%) which conflicts with available performance data
- • No information provided on opponent Justine Bryson, increasing uncertainty and reducing justification for heavy favorite pricing
- • Surfaces played (clay, hard) listed for Nagornaia but no clear surface advantage specified