Highlights

• • Market-implied chance for Iatcenko (~61.7%) looks high versus nearly identical records.
• • Break-even probability for Lansere at 2.20 is ~45.45%; our estimate of 48% implies positive EV.

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (2.20).
• + Recommendation is conservative and based on objective season records.

Cons

• - Data set is limited and recent form for both players is poor, increasing variance.
• - No head-to-head, injury, or additional context provided — recommendation sensitive to undisclosed info.

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.20, Away 1.62) to the limited performance data available. Both players have nearly identical career records this season (Sofya Lansere 10-22, Polina Iatcenko 10-21) and recent results show both are coming off losses, indicating form is poor and similar for each. The market prices heavily favor Iatcenko (implied win probability ~61.7%), which looks overstated given the near-parity in win-loss records and surface exposure. We conservatively estimate Lansere's true chance at 48.0%, which is above the break-even threshold for the 2.20 price (1/0.48 = 2.083). At the quoted home odds of 2.20 this yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.20 - 1 = +0.056), so the home side appears to offer value. The recommendation assumes no hidden injury news or market-moving information beyond the provided profiles.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical season records (Lansere 10-22 vs Iatcenko 10-21)
• • Market strongly favors Iatcenko (implied >60%), likely overstating edge
• • Both players show poor recent form, reducing the predictive advantage for the market favorite