Highlights

• • Lansere: 10-22 career record and recent losses — form concern
• • Current favorite odds (1.452) require >68.87% win probability to be +EV; our estimate is 68.0%

Pros

• + Market reflects Lansere's clear underdog status consistent with her record
• + If additional positive info on Iatchenko appears (injury to Lansere, favorable matchup), value could emerge

Cons

• - No independent data on Polina Iatchenko to justify rating her above market-implied probability
• - Estimated margin vs. market is very small; model uncertainty could flip sign of EV

Details

We compared the market moneyline (Iatchenko 1.452 => implied win prob 68.9%) to our estimated win probability for the favorite. Sofya Lansere's recent form and career record are weak (10-22 overall, poor recent results noted), which supports the market favouring the away player. However, public research provides no performance or ranking information for Polina Iatchenko to confidently project a win probability materially above the market. We conservatively estimate Iatchenko's true win probability at 68.0%, which yields a slight negative expected value at the current quoted price (1.452). Break-even probability for the current odds is 68.87%; our estimate sits just below that threshold, so we decline to recommend a bet. Calculation details: estimated_true_probability = 0.68, min_required_decimal_odds = 1/0.68 = 1.471, EV at current decimal odds (1.452) = 0.68*1.452 - 1 = -0.01264 (-1.26% ROI).

Key factors

• • Sofya Lansere has a weak overall record (10-22) and recent losses, indicating poor form
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied 68.9% with decimal 1.452), and we lack independent data to justify a higher true probability
• • Insufficient opponent (Iatchenko) data increases uncertainty; small margin between our estimate and market leaves no clear value