Highlights

• • Implied market chance for Lansere: ~94.3% (1.06)
• • Our estimated true chance for Lansere: 65% → required odds ≥ 1.538 for value

Pros

• + We account for surface and recent reported match outcomes in our estimate
• + Conservative approach avoids wagering into heavily mispriced, low-return markets

Cons

• - Limited data on the opponent (Romane Morel) increases overall uncertainty
• - If additional information exists (injury to opponent, late withdrawal), market could be correct

Details

We see the market prices Lansere as an overwhelming favorite at 1.06 (implied ~94.3%). Using the available information — Lansere's 10-22 record and recent straight losses on hard courts — we estimate her true chance to win this matchup is far lower than the market-implied probability. Even giving Lansere the benefit of the doubt for surface familiarity, form concerns and the lack of any positive recent results make a >94% win probability implausible. With our estimated win probability (65%), the current price of 1.06 offers a large negative EV, so we do not recommend backing either side at these quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Lansere's overall 10-22 career record and negative recent form
• • Recent reported straight losses on hard courts (most recent matches listed)
• • Market-implied probability (94% at 1.06) appears irrational given available form data