Highlights

• • Research shows similar 10-21 records and comparable recent results for all four players
• • Current away odds (2.69) imply ~37% but we estimate ~50%, creating value

Pros

• + Large margin between market-implied probability and our fair estimate
• + Minimum fair odds (2.00) well below current price (2.69)

Cons

• - Very limited and noisy data; records are poor for both sides which increases outcome variance
• - No H2H, injury, or venue advantage information to strongly support the estimate

Details

We compare the market prices to the limited performance data available. The market implies a heavy favoritism for the home pair (1.444 -> implied probability ~69.2%) while the away pair is priced at 2.69 (implied ~37.2%). The research provided shows nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form for all four players with no clear surface or form advantage for the home side. Given the symmetrical data and lack of H2H or injury edge, we view the matchup closer to an even coin flip than the market suggests. Using an estimated true win probability for the away team of 50.0%, the away decimal price of 2.69 yields positive expected value: EV = 0.50 * 2.69 - 1 = 0.345. The minimum fair decimal required for that probability is 1/0.5 = 2.000, and the current 2.69 comfortably exceeds that threshold, indicating a value bet on the away side. We note uncertainty from small sample sizes and limited distinguishing information, so this is a value play based on market mispricing rather than strong player-edge evidence.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home heavy favorite vs. pricing for away
• • Player records and recent form are nearly identical across both pairs
• • No clear surface, injury, or H2H advantage evident in provided data