Highlights

• • Zhuoma’s provided career record and recent results are weak relative to heavy-market favoritism
• • Home price 3.00 offers ~20% ROI vs our 40% win estimate

Pros

• + Clear misalignment between market odds and provided performance data
• + Simple price-to-probability calculation yields positive EV at current odds

Cons

• - No direct data on Song Fanshi in the provided research — opponent strength is uncertain
• - Small sample and incomplete context (surface, injuries, H2H) increase model uncertainty

Details

We believe the market price for Zhuoma Ni Ma (away, 1.35) implies an unusually high win probability (~74%), which is not supported by the provided performance data: a 10-21 career record (31 matches) and a recent sequence of losses. The home price of 3.00 implies a 33.3% chance; given Zhuoma's modest career win rate (≈32%) and poor recent form on reported surfaces (clay/hard), we estimate a substantially higher true chance for Song Fanshi than the market-implied 33%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 40% for Song Fanshi to win, the home line (3.00) offers positive expected value. Key uncertainties are the lack of direct data on Song Fanshi, unknown surface/conditions for the Guiyang match, and small-sample career data for Zhuoma. We therefore recommend a value play on the home side only because EV > 0 at the current 3.00 price.

Key factors

• • Zhuoma Ni Ma career record 10-21 suggests limited baseline win probability
• • Market-implied probability for Zhuoma (1.35) (~74%) appears inflated vs provided form data
• • Home price 3.00 (33.3% implied) is greater than our conservative true-win estimate (40%)