Sonja Zhenikhova vs Gina Feistel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: based on the available data we estimate Sonja Zhenikhova's true win chance at ~45%, requiring ~2.222 to be +EV but market offers 2.09, so we pass.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probabilities are close to our estimates after removing vig
- • Current prices do not reach the break-even threshold for either player
Pros
- + Transparent reasoning: identical profiles and lack of distinguishing factors reduce forecasting bias
- + We calculated the break-even odds (2.222) so bettors know the threshold for value
Cons
- - Research is limited and lacks H2H, detailed recent-match stats, and surface specifics
- - Small information gaps mean our probability estimate carries uncertainty
Details
We find no profitable edge. The listed prices (Home 2.09, Away 1.685) imply a bookmaker overround (~7.1%); normalizing gives market win probabilities near Home 44.6% / Away 55.4%. The players' available profiles show nearly identical career records (10-21) and mixed results on clay/hard with no clear recent advantage for either player. Given the lack of distinctive form, H2H, surface advantage or injury information in the research, we model Sonja Zhenikhova (home) at a true win probability of 45%. At that probability the break-even decimal price is ~2.222; the current home price 2.09 is too short and yields a negative EV. The away price (1.685) would require an implied win probability >59.3% to be +EV, which exceeds our estimated true probability for Gina Feistel. Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at available prices.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records and recent results in the provided profiles
- • Market contains a meaningful overround; normalized market probs ~Home 44.6% / Away 55.4%
- • No surface, injury, or head-to-head detail in the research to justify diverging from market