Sonja Zhenikhova vs Vicky Van De Peer
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given nearly identical player profiles and recent form, the market overprices the favorite; Vicky Van De Peer at 3.18 represents value versus our 46% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability ~76% vs our estimate ~54% for home (46% away)
- • Underdog price (3.18) is substantially higher than fair odds (~2.17)
Pros
- + Clear pricing discrepancy creates strong positive EV
- + Both players show similar form and surfaces—reduces unknowns that would justify the short favorite
Cons
- - Limited data and small-sample records create uncertainty in probability estimate
- - No H2H, venue/surface advantage, or injury info to strongly support the pick
Details
We see a large market skew: Sonja Zhenikhova priced as a heavy favorite at 1.316 (implied ~76.0%) while Vicky Van De Peer is 3.18 (implied ~31.4%). The research profiles show near-identical records, surfaces and recent form for both players with no clear differentiator (both 10-21 overall, similar recent results). With so little to separate them, we judge the true win probability to be much closer to even than the market implies. We estimate Vicky Van De Peer's true win probability at 46%, which implies fair odds of ~2.174. At the available price of 3.18 this represents positive expected value (EV = 0.46 * 3.18 - 1 ≈ 0.463). The market appears to be overpricing the favorite and offering value on the underdog given the near-identical profiles and lack of surface/injury/H2H advantage.
Key factors
- • Profiles and recent records nearly identical (no clear edge)
- • Market heavily favors home (1.316) despite little evidence
- • Available away price (3.18) is well above our fair odds (~2.174)