Soo Ha Jang vs Nagi Hanatani
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home player Soo Ha Jang at 2.10 based on her greater experience and higher career win rate versus Hanatani; estimated true win probability ~57% gives ~19.7% EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies Jang ~47.6% but we estimate ~57%
- • Positive EV at current price: ~+0.197 per unit
Pros
- + Clear experience and historical win-rate edge for Jang
- + Current odds (2.10) are sufficiently high to offer positive EV given our probability
Cons
- - Both players show recent losses on similar surface—form risk in match-specific conditions
- - Hanatani's small sample and volatility mean outcomes can be noisy despite perceived edge
Details
We see value backing Soo Ha Jang at 2.10. The market prices the away player (Nagi Hanatani) as ~59.9% favorite while Jang is ~47.6% implied. From the provided research Jang brings a long career (substantially larger sample size) and a higher career win rate (559-507 ≈ 52.7%) versus Hanatani's much smaller sample (10-21 ≈ 32.3%). Both have recent losses on hard courts, but Hanatani's limited match history and lower win rate increase variance and the likelihood that the market has overstated her probability. We estimate Jang's true chance higher than the 47.6% implied by 2.10, at ~57.0%, which produces positive expected value versus the current price. Using the current decimal 2.10, EV = 0.57*2.10 - 1 = +0.197 (≈19.7% ROI per unit). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited recent-form detail and single-match context, so we rate this as a medium-risk value play.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap and much larger career sample for Soo Ha Jang
- • Career win-rate advantage for Jang (≈52.7% vs ≈32.3%)
- • Both players have recent losses on hard, but market favors the less-proven Hanatani