Soon Woo Kwon vs Alexander Bublik
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: Bublik is a clear favorite but the 1.10 market price is too short relative to our ~88% win probability; neither side offers positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~90.9% for Bublik; our estimate ~88%
- • Kwon would need >8.33 to be a value play; current 7.00 is inadequate
Pros
- + Bublik's higher-level match exposure and strong serve metrics support heavy favoritism
- + Kwon's good recent win-rate demonstrates form, so an upset is plausible but unlikely
Cons
- - Market price for Bublik is too compressed to offer positive EV
- - Limited H2H/contextual data increases uncertainty around a single-match outcome
Details
The market prices Bublik at 1.10 (implied ~90.9%). Based on the research, Bublik has higher-level match experience and recent US Open appearances, while Kwon's strong win-rate comes from lower-level events (M25-level). We estimate Bublik's true win probability at 88.0% vs Kwon (~12.0%). At that true probability the fair odds for Bublik are ~1.136; the market 1.10 is too short and produces negative expectation. Conversely, Kwon would need odds >8.33 to offer value; the current 7.00 is also insufficient. There are no injury flags in the provided research to materially shift those probabilities, but uncertainty remains due to limited head-to-head data and differences in competition level.
Key factors
- • Bublik has more top-level match experience and recent US Open participation
- • Kwon's strong record appears driven by lower-tier events (M25), suggesting a gap in level
- • Market odds (1.10) imply a higher probability than our estimate, removing value