Soon Woo Kwon vs Alexander Shevchenko

Highlights

• • Market implies 48.1% for Kwon at 2.08; our model 58%
• • EV at current price is ~0.206 (20.6% ROI)

Pros

• + Kwon has an excellent win rate on hard courts in the provided data
• + Current decimal price (2.08) offers a clear overlay versus our probability estimate

Cons

• - Kwon's career sample in the research is smaller (28 matches) — higher variance risk
• - No explicit injury/fitness details available for either player in the provided research

Details

We find value backing Soon Woo Kwon at 2.08. The market-implied probability for Kwon at 2.08 is ~48.1%, while our assessment — driven by Kwon's strong win-loss record (23-5) concentrated on hard courts and consistently positive recent results on the surface — places his true win probability at 58%. Alexander Shevchenko has a larger sample of matches but a losing overall record (31-36) and mixed recent form, which lowers our projection for him despite the market favoring him at 1.75. With our estimated probability (58%) and the available decimal price (2.08), the bet yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.2064, ~20.6% ROI). We note sample-size risk for Kwon (fewer total matches) and limited explicit injury information, but the surface matchup and recent form give Kwon a meaningful edge versus the market price.

Key factors

• • Kwon's strong overall record (23-5) skewed toward hard-court performance
• • Shevchenko's overall losing record (31-36) and mixed recent form
• • Market prices favor Shevchenko (1.75) while implied probability undervalues Kwon