Sophia Biolay vs Madison Sieg
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend a value bet on Sophia Biolay at 2.52 because our estimate of her win probability (~46%) implies fair odds (~2.174) lower than the offered price, producing positive EV (~15.9%).
Highlights
- • Market implies Sophia ~39.7% vs our estimate ~46%
- • Positive EV at current price: ~0.159 (15.9% ROI)
Pros
- + Experience and larger career sample point to a higher true win probability
- + Offered odds (2.52) are substantially above our fair odds (~2.174)
Cons
- - Both players show recent losses; recent form is poor for each
- - Madison's limited match sample increases variance and uncertainty despite underperformance
Details
We find value on the home player Sophia Biolay. The market prices Madison Sieg at 1.457 (implied ~68.6%) and Sophia at 2.52 (implied ~39.7%), but the underlying player profiles suggest a narrower gap. Sophia's large sample career (559-507) indicates a baseline winning ability (~52.5% career win rate) and comfort on multiple surfaces including clay and hard, while Madison has a small sample (10-21) and a lower career win rate (~32.3%). Recent form shows losses for both, but the experience and broader proven performance of Sophia lead us to estimate her true chance materially above the market-implied 39.7%. At our estimated true probability (46%), the implied fair odds are ~2.174, and the offered 2.52 represents positive expected value. We therefore recommend backing Sophia at the available 2.52 price.
Key factors
- • Experience gap: Sophia has extensive career match history vs Madison's small sample
- • Career win-rate differential favors Sophia (≈52.5% vs ≈32.3%)
- • Market overprices the away favorite (large implied probability despite limited Madison data)