Highlights

• • Market price heavily favors Fukuda (1.41) versus our more conservative true probability
• • Brumm at 2.73 trades above our min required odds (2.326) for value

Pros

• + Clear numerical value: EV positive at current away price
• + Brumm's larger match sample reduces the chance market is accurately reflecting a big quality gap

Cons

• - Both players have limited/volatile recent data and some inconsistent match stats in the research
• - No H2H or clear surface-specific edge provided — uncertainty remains

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our fair estimate based on the provided player profiles. Sora Fukuda's raw career win rate is 18/31 (≈58%) while Jacob Brumm is 28/55 (≈51%). The market is pricing Fukuda at 1.41 (implied ~71%), which appears overstated relative to the sample data and recent mixed form for both players. Given similar surface experience and no clear injury or venue advantage in the research, we put Fukuda nearer to a 57% true-win probability and Brumm at 43%. At the current away price of 2.73 (implied ~36.6%), Brumm appears to offer value: our estimated probability (0.43) produces positive EV (0.174). We therefore recommend the away side only because EV > 0 at the quoted price. We remain conservative due to small sample sizes and noisy recent-match stats in the research.

Key factors

• • Sora Fukuda career win rate higher (≈58%) but priced excessively by market (1.41)
• • Jacob Brumm larger match sample (55 matches) suggests less variance and fairer baseline (~51% career), we adjust to 43% for this matchup
• • No clear surface or injury edge in the provided research; market margin likely inflates favorite