Sora Fukuda vs Masamichi Imamura
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small positive value on home (Sora Fukuda) at 2.38 based on a 43% estimated win probability (EV ≈ +2.3%); this is a modest, medium-risk value play.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Imamura (66%) looks overstated given records and form
- • Required fair odds for Fukuda are ~2.326; current 2.38 exceeds that threshold
Pros
- + Estimated true probability produces a positive EV at current market price
- + Surface parity reduces a potential advantage for the market favorite
Cons
- - Small sample sizes and limited head-to-head/contextual data increase uncertainty
- - Edge is small (≈2.3% ROI) — vulnerable to variance and late-market moves
Details
The market prices Masamichi Imamura at ~66% (1.51) despite a marginally inferior career win rate (26-29) and both players having primary experience on hard courts. Sora Fukuda's win rate (18-13) and recent match volume indicate a higher-than-market chance than implied by 2.38. We estimate Fukuda's true win probability at 43%, which implies fair decimal odds of 2.326. At the available price of 2.38 the bet offers small positive edge: EV = 0.43 * 2.38 - 1 = +0.0234 (≈2.34% ROI). The value comes from (1) Fukuda's superior winning percentage in a smaller but recent sample, (2) both players being more comfortable on hard courts so surface advantage is neutral, and (3) Imamura's Challenger-level appearances may have increased market weight despite mixed results. Uncertainties (limited H2H data, small sample sizes, and recent mixed results for both) keep this a modest edge rather than a clear favorite.
Key factors
- • Fukuda has a better win-loss percentage (18-13) versus Imamura's (26-29)
- • Both players have experience on hard courts — neutralizing surface bias
- • Market favors Imamura likely due to higher-level Challenger appearances despite mixed results