Highlights

• • Home odds 2.20 imply 45.5% — our estimate is 50%
• • Positive EV of 0.10 (10% ROI) at current price

Pros

• + Career win-rate and hard-court experience support a higher true win probability
• + Current market price offers a clear edge versus our conservative estimate

Cons

• - Very limited information on opponent Alafia Ayeni — matchup risk unknown
• - Sora's recent match list shows mixed results, so form volatility is possible

Details

We identify value on Sora Fukuda (home). The market prices the home at 2.20 (implied win probability 45.5%) while Sora's documented career win-rate is 18-13 (≈58%) with experience on hard courts and recent matches on hard surfaces. Given that surface compatibility and career win-rate favor Sora and there is no corroborating data showing the opponent is significantly stronger, we conservatively estimate Sora's true win probability at 50.0%, which exceeds the market-implied 45.5%. That produces positive expected value at the current home price (EV = 0.5 * 2.20 - 1 = 0.10), so we recommend the home moneyline as a value play while acknowledging limited opponent data increases uncertainty.

Key factors

• • Sora Fukuda career win-rate ~58% (18-13) across clay and hard
• • Recent matches documented on hard courts, matching the noted venue surface history
• • Market implies 45.5% for home (2.20) while our conservative true estimate is 50%
• • No detailed opponent (Alafia Ayeni) data available — increases uncertainty