Highlights

• • Book odds imply home win ~69.4% despite Anane's 32.3% career win rate
• • Away at 2.63 yields an estimated EV of +0.781 (78.1% ROI) using available metrics

Pros

• + Large disparity between market implied probability and Anane's documented win rate
• + Available away odds (2.63) are well above the break-even threshold (1.477) implied by our probability

Cons

• - Opponent-specific details (form, H2H, injuries) and exact match surface are missing from the research
• - Small sample/career length and recent-match data gaps increase model uncertainty

Details

Bookmakers price Soumeya Anane as a strong favorite at 1.44 (implied 69.4%), but the player profile shows a career record of 10-21 (10 wins in 31 matches = 32.3% win rate) and poor recent form. Using Anane's observed career win-rate as a baseline (32.3%) implies her opponent's true win probability is ~67.7%. That contrasts sharply with the market which gives the away player only ~38.0% (1/2.63). At the available away price of 2.63 we find clear value: EV = 0.677 * 2.63 - 1 = +0.781 (78.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Key numerical comparisons: Implied home probability 0.694 vs our estimated Anane probability 0.323 (market appears to overvalue Anane); implied away probability 0.380 vs our estimated away probability 0.677 (market undervalues the away player). Given the data provided (career win rate, recent losses) and no positive evidence favoring Anane, the away price offers significant edge. We caveat that sample sizes are small and opponent-specific/contextual info (H2H, exact surface, injuries) is missing, so uncertainty is higher than usual.

Key factors

• • Soumeya Anane career win rate 10/31 = 32.3%
• • Recent form shown in profile indicates multiple recent losses
• • Market odds (home 1.44) imply a probability far above her observed win-rate; lack of opponent/H2H data increases uncertainty