Spain vs Denmark
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a modest value backing Spain to win the tie: estimated win probability 68% vs market-implied 65%, yielding ~4.6% ROI at current odds 1.538.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability (68%) > market-implied (65%)
- • Current price (1.538) exceeds minimum required odds (1.471) for value
Pros
- + Home nation advantage and probable better team depth in Davis Cup format
- + Available odds provide a small positive edge per our conservative model
Cons
- - Edge is modest; small estimation errors or late injuries can wipe out value
- - Surface choice and exact lineups were unknown, increasing uncertainty
Details
We estimate Spain's true probability to win the Davis Cup tie at 68% (0.68) based on home-nation advantage, likely surface choice, and deeper team depth in the Davis Cup format; no injury or surface information was provided so we used conservative assumptions. The market-implied probability at the current decimal price of 1.538 is ~65.0% (1/1.538 = 0.650). Our estimated probability (68%) exceeds the market-implied probability (65%), producing positive expected value. EV calculation: EV = 0.68 * 1.538 - 1 = 0.04584 (≈4.6% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds given our estimate is 1.471, and the available price (1.538) is above that threshold, so the price offers value. We note higher uncertainty due to unknown surface selection and potential late injuries, so the edge is modest and not immune to variance.
Key factors
- • Home advantage and likely surface choice favor the home nation
- • Team depth in Davis Cup format typically benefits Spain over Denmark
- • Uncertainty over injuries, exact surface and lineup increases variance