Highlights

• • Spirit implied market probability: ~72.3% vs our estimate 70% (no value)
• • Tundra would need odds >3.333 to be +EV given our 30% estimate; current 3.01 is insufficient

Pros

• + Clear market pricing and narrow gap — easy to compare to our conservative probabilities
• + Low volatility outcome for a single-match moneyline (market consensus present)

Cons

• - No external match information available increases uncertainty — our estimates are conservative
• - Small margin between market and our probability means minor model shifts could flip EV

Details

The market strongly favors Spirit at decimal 1.383 (implied ~72.3%). With no external research available we make conservative estimates: we assign Spirit a 70.0% chance to win and Tundra a 30.0% chance. At our 70% estimate the fair price for Spirit is 1.429 (1/0.70); the current market price of 1.383 is below that, producing a small negative expected value. Similarly, Tundra would need odds >3.333 to be +EV given our 30% estimate; the current 3.01 is too short. Because neither side offers positive EV at the quoted prices we do not recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • No external match data available — we apply conservative probability estimates
• • Market-implied probability for Spirit (1/1.383 ≈ 72.3%) exceeds our estimated 70%
• • Tundra would require substantially longer odds (>3.333) to offer value at our 30% estimate