Highlights

• • Favorite Spirit priced at 1.332 (implied ~75%)
• • Our conservative true probability 70% yields negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Spirit is the clear market favorite, indicating perceived strength
• + Odds are widely available and stable, making any value easy to capture if identified

Cons

• - No independent data on recent form, injuries, or lineup changes to justify a higher win probability
• - Market margin is slim for the favorite; little room for value without stronger conviction

Details

We conservatively estimate Spirit's true win probability at 70% based on market positioning (Spirit priced as a clear favorite at 1.332) and the lack of independent form/injury/H2H data. The bookmaker-implied probability at 1.332 is about 75.2%, which leaves little margin for value unless Spirit's true win chance is meaningfully above our conservative 70% estimate. Using our estimate, the expected return at the current home price (1.332) is negative (EV = 0.7 * 1.332 - 1 = -0.068), so we do not find value on either side given available odds and the absence of reliable additional information.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker market prices imply ~75% for Spirit (1.332), leaving little upside for the favorite
• • No additional reliable information on form, roster changes, or H2H was available, so we use conservative assumptions
• • To be +EV on Spirit you would need a true win probability materially above our conservative 70% estimate (or better odds)