Highlights

• • Tomescu's career win-rate in the supplied data is substantially higher than Andreescu's
• • Current market price (1.769) implies a lower win probability than our estimate

Pros

• + Clear edge versus market-implied probability at the available price
• + Both players’ clay experience reduces uncertainty about surface performance

Cons

• - Research sample sizes and recent-match snippets are limited and partially truncated
• - No head-to-head data provided and fine-grain form/injury details are missing

Details

We find value on Dan Alexandru Tomescu (away). His recorded career win-rate in the provided data (29-13, ~69%) is materially stronger than Stefan Adrian Andreescu's (34-28, ~55%), and both have clay experience so surface does not favor Andreescu uniquely. The market currently prices Tomescu at 1.769 (implying ~56.5% win probability). After downward-adjusting Tomescu's raw career win rate for sample size, recent mixed results, and the fact that these are ITF-level matches, we estimate Tomescu's true win probability at 62%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.613, so the available 1.769 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.097 per 1 unit). Given the data provided, the away price contains a modest but real edge versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Tomescu's stronger overall win-loss record (29-13 vs Andreescu 34-28) in the provided data
• • Both players have clay experience, reducing a surface-dependent advantage for the home player
• • Market-implied probability at 1.769 (~56.5%) is below our estimated true probability (62%)