Highlights

• • Market price implies ~65% for Andreescu; our estimate ~68%
• • Positive expected value (~4% ROI) at current odds

Pros

• + Clearer career-level advantage and larger sample of matches
• + Current price provides a small value margin over our probability

Cons

• - Both players' recent results in the research are on clay, not grass
• - Qualifying matches are higher variance; small edge may be fragile

Details

We see value backing the home player Stefan Adrian Andreescu at 1.529. The market-implied probability for the favorite is ~65.4% (1/1.529). Based on Andreescu's stronger career win-rate (34-28 vs 18-25), greater recent match volume and marginally better form in the provided records, we estimate his true win probability higher than the market at ~68%. There is uncertainty because both players' recent recorded matches are on clay and there is no grass-specific data, but the career-level advantage and superior match experience suggest a small edge. At our estimated probability the bet returns a positive expected value versus the current price.

Key factors

• • Andreescu has a better career win-loss record and more match experience
• • Market-implied probability (~65.4%) is below our estimated true win chance (68%)
• • No grass-specific form for either player increases model uncertainty