Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Stefan: ~70.1%
• • Our estimated true probability for Stefan: 60% → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Stefan has a larger match sample and higher overall win count in the provided data
• + Home/favourite price is widely available and liquid

Cons

• - No grass-specific performance data for either player in the provided research
• - Market price requires >66.7% true win chance to break even, which we do not support

Details

We compared the market price (home 1.427 => implied win probability ~70.1%) to our assessment of the true win probability for Stefan Dostanic. Both players' recent documented matches are primarily on clay and hard courts; grass-specific data is absent in the provided research, increasing uncertainty. Stefan has a larger recent match sample (33-18) and is the favourite in price, but his recent results include losses and there is no clear dominance on grass versus Pablo, who has fewer matches but a respectable 16-9 record. Given the surface mismatch/unknowns and the market's steep implied probability, we estimate Stefan's true win probability at 60%, which does not justify backing him at 1.427 (EV = 0.6*1.427 - 1 = -0.144). Therefore there is no positive value at current prices and we recommend taking no side.

Key factors

• • Market implies ~70.1% for Stefan (1/1.427) which we judge too high
• • Both players' documented matches are on clay/hard; grass form is unknown
• • Stefan has a bigger sample (33-18) but recent losses reduce confidence in >70% true win chance