Highlights

• • Away (Susanto) estimated win prob: 55%
• • Positive EV of ~0.05 (5%) at current away odds 1.909

Pros

• + Susanto has more matches and recent activity in Bali, improving match-readiness
• + Current market prices favor the inexperienced Menichella, producing a pricing edge

Cons

• - Both players show weak overall records; small-sample noise (Menichella) increases variance
• - Edge is modest; outcome volatility and limited data raise downside risk

Details

We find value on Anthony Susanto (away). The bookmarket lines price Stefan Menichella as the favorite at 1.82 despite Menichella having only one recorded match (0-1) and minimal match history, while Susanto has a larger sample (13 matches, 4-9) and recent activity in Bali. Susanto's greater match experience and recent local tournament exposure increase our confidence relative to the market's assessment. Using a conservative estimated true win probability of 55% for Susanto and the available quoted away price of 1.909, the bet produces positive expected value. The market-implied probability at 1.909 is ~52.4%, so our estimate implies a small but clear edge after accounting for the bookmaker margin/overround.

Key factors

• • Susanto has substantially more match experience (13 matches) vs Menichella (1 match)
• • Recent local/Bali event activity favors Susanto's familiarity with conditions
• • Bookmaker favors the very low-sample Menichella, creating a pricing inefficiency