Highlights

• • Palosi estimated true chance 38% vs market 35.8% (value at 2.79)
• • Erhard favored but shows recent form uncertainty and no grass history in provided data

Pros

• + Positive EV at current price (approximately +6% per unit staked)
• + Both players lack grass track records, which narrows the favorite's advantage

Cons

• - Erhard's superior overall record suggests genuine quality gap that could still prevail
• - Limited direct data on grass performance increases volatility and uncertainty

Details

The market prices Mathys Erhard as a clear favorite (1.446 => implied 69.1%) while Stefan Palosi is available at 2.79 (implied 35.8%). Our assessment adjusts probabilities toward Palosi because both players show limited or no grass-history in the provided profiles (both primarily clay/hard players), which reduces Erhard's apparent edge. Erhard has the stronger aggregate record (40-23 vs 25-23), but his recent notes include an unfinished/uncertain match and a recent loss on clay, introducing form risk. Palosi has recent match wins at lower-level events and may be underpriced on grass/neutral conditions. We estimate Palosi's true win probability at 38.0%, which yields positive expected value at the quoted 2.79 price (EV = 0.38*2.79 - 1 = +0.060). Therefore we recommend a value play on the home player only because expected_value > 0 at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Erhard (implied ~69%) while on-paper surface experience for both on grass is limited
• • Erhard has stronger career record but recent form shows an unfinished match and a recent loss, adding uncertainty
• • Palosi has recent match wins at lower levels and may be underpriced on grass/neutral conditions