Stefan Seifert vs Simon Reveniau
Tennis
2025-09-11 06:27
Start: 2025-09-11 12:00
Summary
Pick: away
EV: 0.01177
Current Odds
Home 2.91|Away 1.89
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Stefan Seifert_Simon Reveniau_2025-09-11
Analysis
Summary: We find a small value on the away price (1.909) assuming Reveniau's win probability is ~53%; the edge is marginal and rests on limited information.
Highlights
- • Implied away probability at 1.909 is ~52.39%; our estimate is 53%
- • Estimated ROI ~1.18% if our probability estimate is correct
Pros
- + Away price exceeds the minimum required decimal odds for our probability estimate
- + Reveniau has demonstrated hard-court match play in recent results
Cons
- - Very limited data on both players (especially the home player), raising model risk
- - Edge is small — sensitive to small changes in estimated probability or price
Details
We estimate Simon Reveniau's chance to win at ~53% based on his recent hard-court exposure and a neutral assessment given the absence of public data on Stefan Seifert. The market's away decimal price (1.909) implies a 52.39% probability, so our estimated true probability (53%) is slightly higher than the market-implied probability, producing a small positive edge. Given the very small sample of matches for Reveniau and the uncertainty around the home player, this is a marginal value pick only if the current away price holds.
Key factors
- • Reveniau has recent match experience on hard courts (where these recorded matches occurred)
- • Very small sample size for Reveniau (4 matches total) increases variance and uncertainty
- • No available public data on Stefan Seifert increases market uncertainty — possible mispricing