Highlights

• • Book implies Marinescu win chance ≈23.2%; we estimate ≈35%
• • Required odds for break-even on our estimate are ~2.857; current 4.31 is well above that

Pros

• + Large margin between our estimated probability and market-implied probability creates strong EV
• + Qualifier environment and surface unfamiliarity for both players increase upset likelihood

Cons

• - Limited surface-specific data (both players mainly have clay/hard records), increasing uncertainty
• - No H2H or injury information available in the provided research to refine the estimate

Details

We estimate Mihai Razvan Marinescu has materially higher chance to win than the market implies. The market prices Andreescu at 1.204 (≈83.1% implied); that overstates the home edge given the available data. Andreescu's career record (34-28) is only moderately better than Marinescu's (21-24) and both have predominantly clay/hard background with little evidence of a grass advantage for Andreescu. On a neutral/grass surface and in a qualifier setting—where variance is higher and form swings matter more—the gap between these two players should be narrower than the market suggests. Converting our judgment to numbers, we estimate Marinescu's win probability at 35% (true probability = 0.35) while the book gives him ~23.2% at 4.31. That gap produces a positive expected value on the away line at commonly available prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors Andreescu (1.204) creating potential mispricing
• • Career records are only modestly different; both players have most experience on clay/hard, not grass
• • Qualifier matches have higher variance, increasing upset probability relative to strict model odds