Stefan Bianchet vs Ezekiel Clark

Highlights

• • Clark’s record (20-23) and recent defeats make a 96% market probability unlikely
• • Home underdog only needs >8.7% true chance to be profitable at 11.5; we estimate ~15%

Pros

• + Large margin between market odds and our estimated fair odds creates strong positive EV
• + Low break-even threshold for the underdog means even modest confidence yields profit

Cons

• - Very limited direct information on Stefan Bianchet increases model uncertainty
• - High variance and low probability event — longshot outcomes are inherently risky

Details

We see an extreme market skew: Ezekiel Clark is priced at 1.04 (implying ~96.2% win probability) while Stefan Bianchet is 11.5 (implying ~8.7%). Based on Clark's available profile (career 20-23, recent losing results on hard) it is implausible he is a 96% favorite. We estimate Bianchet's true chance materially exceeds the ~8.7% break-even threshold for the 11.5 price. Using a conservative true-win estimate for Bianchet of 15%, the minimum fair decimal price would be 6.667, so the current 11.5 offers significant value (EV = 0.15*11.5 - 1 = 0.725). We therefore recommend the home underdog because the favorite price (1.04) would require an unrealistically high true probability (~96.15%) to be fair.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Clark (1.04) is extremely high and unlikely given his 20-23 career record
• • Recent form shows recent losses on hard, reducing confidence in a near-certain outcome
• • Break-even probability for the home 11.5 line is only ~8.7%, which is well below our estimated true chance for Bianchet