Highlights

• • Home price 1.40 implies 71.4% — we consider this too high given Dostanic's record and recent results
• • Backing away at 2.85 yields positive EV (≈ +0.083) if Pablo's win chance is ≥38%

Pros

• + Current away odds (2.85) exceed our minimum fair odds (2.632) for Pablo, creating positive EV
• + Uses concrete career win-rate and recent match indicators to adjust market probability

Cons

• - Opponent-specific data for Pablo Gomez is limited in the provided research, adding uncertainty to the probability estimate
• - If Dostanic's recent losses are isolated or against much stronger opponents, his true probability may be closer to the market-implied figure and erase value

Details

The market prices Stefan Dostanic at 1.40 (implied win probability 71.4%), which appears rich versus his documented career win-rate (33-18 → ~64.7%) and recent form that includes losses at Winston-Salem and a recent US Open defeat. We downgrade Dostanic from the market-implied 71% to an estimated true probability of ~62% (giving Pablo Gomez ~38%). That makes the away price 2.85 (implied 35.1%) offer positive expected value versus our 38% estimate: EV = 0.38 * 2.85 - 1 = +0.083 (8.3% ROI). In short, the market is overestimating the favourite based on recent results and career-level context, creating value on Pablo at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Dostanic (1/1.40 = 71.4%) exceeds his career win% (33/51 ≈ 64.7%)
• • Recent form for Dostanic shows losses at higher-level events (Winston-Salem, US Open qualifiers), suggesting a form downgrade
• • Available price for Pablo (2.85 → implied 35.1%) is lower than our estimated true chance (~38%), producing value