Stefan Menichella vs Arthur Weber

Highlights

• • Market implies >91% for Weber; our fair estimate ≈85%
• • EV for betting Weber at 1.098 is about -6.7% (negative)

Pros

• + Weber's larger sample and positive record make him the logical match favorite
• + If new information (injury to Weber or favorable conditions for Menichella) appears, the market could shift and create value

Cons

• - Quoted favorite price (1.098) does not offer positive EV against our probability estimate
• - Menichella's record is too sparse to confidently back as an 9.11 longshot without additional information

Details

We estimate Arthur Weber is the clear favorite based on experience (29 matches, 15-14) versus Stefan Menichella's extremely limited record (1 match, 0-1). However, the market price for Weber (1.098) implies a >91% win probability; our assessment of Weber's realistic win probability is ~85% given Weber's modest career win rate and lack of dominant recent form in the provided data. At p = 0.85 the fair decimal price is 1.176, meaning the offered 1.098 is underpriced for bettors and yields negative expected value. EV calculation vs the quoted price: EV = 0.85 * 1.098 - 1 = -0.067 (≈ -6.7% ROI per unit), so we do not recommend taking the favorite at current prices. The underdog price (9.11) would require a true win probability of 1/9.11 = 0.110 (11.0%) to be fair; given Menichella's negligible match history it's plausible his chance is below that threshold but the data is too sparse and uncertain to claim profitable value on the long price.

Key factors

• • Weber has substantially more match history (29 matches) and positive record (15-14) vs Menichella's single recorded match (0-1)
• • Market heavily favors Weber (implied >91%); our assessment assigns a lower true probability (~85%), so the favorite is overpriced for bettors
• • Very small sample for Menichella makes upside uncertain but not enough to justify backing the 9.11 underdog as mispriced value