Highlights

• • Tomescu: stronger overall record and cleaner recent form
• • Current odds imply value if Tomescu's win chance ≥62%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available prices
• + No obvious surface disadvantage; both players have clay experience

Cons

• - Limited direct-matchup/H2H information increases uncertainty
• - Tennis matches have higher variance; upsets are common

Details

We favor Dan Alexandru Tomescu. His career record (29-13) and recent form on clay/hard indicate a higher baseline quality than Stefan Palosi (25-23). Both players have clay experience, so surface does not materially flip advantage. The market price for Tomescu (1.775, implied 56.3%) appears below our estimated true win probability of 62.0% given his superior win rate and cleaner recent results. Using the current away price (1.775) produces positive expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.775 - 1 ≈ +0.101), so this is a value bet by our model.

Key factors

• • Tomescu's better career win-loss (29-13) versus Palosi (25-23)
• • Both players have experience on clay, minimizing surface swing
• • Market-implied probability (56.3%) is below our estimated true probability (62%)