Highlights

• • Home implied probability: ~61.4%; our estimate: 66%
• • Positive expected value of ~7.4% at current home price

Pros

• + Stronger overall record and clearer clay experience
• + Current price offers a measurable edge vs our probability estimate

Cons

• - Limited depth of available form/injury/H2H information increases variance
• - Edge is modest; match-level variance on clay and small-sample records can flip outcomes

Details

We compared the bookmaker prices (Home 1.629, Away 2.17) to our estimate of each player’s true chance to win based on the available profiles. Stefan Popovic has a stronger overall record (34-28) and explicit clay experience noted in his profile; Marlon Vankan has a smaller sample and a near-even record (24-23) across clay and hard. The market-implied probability for Popovic at 1.629 is ~61.4%, but we assess his true probability at approximately 66% given superior recent volume of matches and clay familiarity. That gap produces positive expected value with the current home price: EV = 0.66 * 1.629 - 1 = +0.074 (7.4% ROI). There is no head-to-head data and both players have limited high-level results, so we remain conservative in our probability estimate, but the available indicators support a small value on the home side at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Popovic has a better win-loss record (34-28) and noted clay experience
• • Vankan has fewer total matches and a near-even record (24-23), reducing confidence
• • Market-implied probability (61.4%) is below our conservative true probability estimate (66%)