Highlights

• • Market implied probability: ~82.0% (1/1.22)
• • Our estimated probability: 88% → positive EV at current price

Pros

• + Clear underdog form disadvantage (Sborowsky 1-4)
• + Current market price (1.22) is still high enough to produce positive EV against our estimate

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and limited publicly available data increase uncertainty
• - If surface or other contextual info favors the underdog, our estimate may be optimistic

Details

We view Stefan Seifert as the clear favorite and find value at the current home price. The market-implied probability for the home moneyline (1.22) is about 82.0%, but Yoshka Sborowsky's profile shows very limited success (1-4 career record with recent losses on clay and hard), suggesting a lower chance for the underdog than the market implies. Conservatively, we estimate Seifert's win probability at 88%; at that level the 1.22 price yields positive expectation. Key drivers are Sborowsky's poor recent form and small sample of matches, the heavy market favoritism toward the home player, and the absence of mitigating information (no reported injuries for the favorite, no H2H advantage for the underdog). Given those factors, the home moneyline at 1.22 offers a modest positive edge.

Key factors

• • Yoshka Sborowsky's limited record (1-4) and recent losses
• • Market implies ~82.0% for home (1.22) — we estimate true win chance ~88%
• • No reported mitigating factors for the favorite and no strong evidence of surface advantage for the underdog