Highlights

• • Home price 1.685 implies ~59.3% win chance
• • Our estimated true win chance for the home player is ~54%, below the market

Pros

• + Home player is the market favorite, reflecting some perceived edge
• + Both players have experience on hard courts

Cons

• - Available data shows very similar records and mixed recent form, offering no clear advantage
• - Market price requires a substantial edge to be profitable, which the research does not support

Details

We compared the market pricing (home 1.685 implies ~59.3% win probability) to the players' profiles and recent results. Both players have nearly identical career records in 2024–25 (Stefan Vujic 9-14, Ivan Denisov 8-15) and have recent hard-court matches with mixed results; there is no clear form, injury, or head-to-head edge for either side in the provided research. Given the similarity in performances and lack of decisive edge in the data, we estimate Stefan Vujic's true win probability at 54%, which is materially below the market-implied ~59.3% for the 1.685 price. That gap produces a negative expected return at the displayed odds, so we do not recommend betting either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical recent records and match counts (Vujic 9-14 vs Denisov 8-15)
• • Both have recent hard-court results with mixed outcomes — no clear form advantage
• • Market-implied probability for the home player (~59.3%) exceeds our estimated true probability (54%)