Highlights

• • Away implied win probability (~97%) is inconsistent with the players' near-identical records
• • Home needs only ~8.33% true chance to be +EV at 12.0; our conservative estimate is 45%

Pros

• + Huge pricing discrepancy creates substantial theoretical EV
• + Research provides no clear reason to justify the market's heavy favorite

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head or deeper context in the provided sources increases uncertainty
• - Heavy underdog outcomes are high-variance; even correct EV estimates can see short-term losses

Details

We find a clear mispricing. The market gives Stefana Lazar (home) 12.0 and Ksenia Zaytseva (away) 1.03. The implied probability for the away player at 1.03 is ~97.1%, which is inconsistent with the available performance data: both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent activity on clay and hard courts, with no injury or form edge reported. Given the near parity in the research, a roughly even to slight-edge probability for the away player is more realistic (we estimate Stefana Lazar has a materially higher chance than the 8.33% implied by 12.0). Using our conservative true-win estimate for Lazar of 45%, the home price of 12.0 yields strong positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 12.0 - 1 = 4.4). Even if our probability estimate is overly optimistic, any true probability above ~8.33% would be positive EV at 12.0, so the current market price represents value on the home underdog.

Key factors

• • Both players show essentially identical career records (10-21) in the provided data
• • Both have recent matches on clay and hard courts — no clear surface advantage reported
• • No injuries, withdrawals, or form differential noted in the supplied research; market odds appear extreme and disconnected from available evidence