Stefani Webb vs Jizel Matos Sequeira Fernandes

Highlights

• • Home moneyline 1.202 implies ~83% win probability
• • Our fair estimate for the favorite is ~60%, requiring odds ≥ 1.667 for value

Pros

• + Clear comparison of player records and surface experience shows parity
• + Market skew is obvious — simplifies the value decision (no bet)

Cons

• - Limited detailed data (rankings, H2H, injury status) increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - If there are unreported advantages (seed, ranking, home conditions) the market price may be justified

Details

We find no value on either side. The market prices Stefani Webb as a heavy favorite at 1.202 (implied ~83.2%), but the available profiles show both players with nearly identical records (10-21), similar surface experience (clay and hard) and recent losing form. Given that parity, a realistic win probability for Webb is closer to ~60%, which requires minimum fair odds of ~1.667. At the current price of 1.202 the expected return is strongly negative, so we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
• • Recent form for both is weak with recent losses and no clear momentum advantage
• • Market-implied probability for the favorite (~83%) is far above a realistic estimate (~60%), removing value