Stefaniya Pushkar vs Lucia Llinares Domingo

Highlights

• • Home implied probability 54.8% vs our estimate 60%
• • Lucia's weak win rate and recent losses lower the away probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Away player has demonstrably poor overall results and recent form

Cons

• - Sparse direct information on the home player increases model uncertainty
• - Small-sample career metrics and lack of H2H make the edge sensitive to new info

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.826 -> implied 54.8%) to our estimated true win probability for Stefaniya Pushkar. The available research shows Lucia Llinares Domingo has a poor career record (10-21, ~32% overall) and weak recent results, including losses on both clay and hard; this lowers the away player's probability materially. There is no conflicting injury or head-to-head information to suggest a market correction, and the match is on clay where Lucia has played but has not shown strong form. Given the limited information on Pushkar but observing the market only gives a narrow edge to the home player, we conservatively estimate Pushkar's true win probability at 60%. At that estimate the home decimal price of 1.826 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.096 per 1 unit stake). Because value exists at the widely available current price, we recommend backing the home side. We note the recommendation is conditional on sparse direct data about Pushkar and carries model risk from small-sample career metrics for Lucia.

Key factors

• • Lucia Llinares Domingo career record 10-21 (~32% wins) and recent poor form
• • Market gives home only a small edge (implied 54.8%) vs our conservative 60% estimate
• • Limited information on Stefaniya Pushkar and no injury/H2H data increases uncertainty