Highlights

• • Napolitano: grass experience but weak recent form
• • Dalla Valle: more matches, better overall record and recent wins, price suggests underpricing

Pros

• + Away price (1.971) exceeds our fair odds (1.887) for a 53% win probability
• + Dalla Valle's higher match volume suggests better current form and match readiness

Cons

• - Dalla Valle has limited documented grass experience versus Napolitano's grass history
• - Edge is modest (EV ~4.5%) and sensitive to our probability estimate

Details

We compare the two players solely on the provided data. Stefano Napolitano has explicit grass experience but a weak recent win-loss profile (7-14 across 21 matches, recent losses at Wimbledon and US Open), suggesting form and results are poor despite surface familiarity. Enrico Dalla Valle shows a larger recent workload (46 matches) and a better overall record (20-25), with recent qualifying wins on clay indicating active match play and momentum. The market lists Napolitano as the favorite at 1.84 (implied 54.35%), but given Napolitano's poor recent results and Dalla Valle's higher match activity and better win rate, we estimate Dalla Valle's true win probability at 53.0%. At the available away price of 1.971 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.53 * 1.971 - 1 ≈ 0.0446). We acknowledge the surface edge nominally favors Napolitano, and Dalla Valle has little documented grass history, so our edge is moderate rather than large, but the quoted away price offers value versus our probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Napolitano has documented grass experience but recent poor results (including Wimbledon/US Open losses)
• • Dalla Valle has more match volume (46 matches) and a superior overall win record (20-25) indicating better recent match sharpness
• • Market favors Napolitano at 1.84 despite form disparity; away price 1.971 appears to underprice Dalla Valle given his activity and record