Stefano Napolitano vs Gianluca Cadenasso
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing the away underdog Gianluca Cadenasso at 2.55 — our conservative 47% win estimate produces positive EV (~0.20 units).
Highlights
- • Market-implied chance for Cadenasso is ~39.2%; we estimate ~47% — clear value gap
- • Cadenasso's superior career record and recent form drive our edge despite Napolitano's grass familiarity
Pros
- + Price (2.55) comfortably above our min required odds (2.128) for a profitable bet
- + Cadenasso's stronger win-loss profile and consistent match play suggest higher true win probability
Cons
- - Limited direct surface data: Napolitano has grass experience which could swing a close match
- - Challenger-level matches can be volatile; small-sample effects and matchup details not provided increase variance
Details
We find value backing Gianluca Cadenasso at the current away price (2.55). The market implies a win probability of ~39.2% for Cadenasso (1/2.55). From the provided profiles, Cadenasso has a substantially stronger career record (29-16) versus Napolitano (10-14) and has shown consistent form through the recent Biella matches. Napolitano has some grass experience, which narrows the gap, but the weight of career win-rate and recent results leads us to estimate Cadenasso's true win probability materially higher than the market's 39%. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 47%, the expected value at 2.55 is positive (EV ≈ +0.199 per unit staked), indicating value at current prices.
Key factors
- • Career records: Cadenasso 29-16 (stronger overall win rate) vs Napolitano 10-14
- • Both players coming off recent Biella Challenger matches (form signal); Cadenasso appears more consistent
- • Surface: match on grass — Napolitano has some grass experience, which reduces but does not erase Cadenasso's edge