Highlights

• • Market implies ~87% chance for Napolitano; our estimate is 75%
• • Fair odds for Napolitano would be ~1.333 — current price is too short

Pros

• + Napolitano's greater experience and higher career win rate suggest he is the stronger player
• + Both players have mixed recent form but Napolitano's broader surface history is advantageous

Cons

• - Current market price (1.147) does not offer positive expected value
• - Surface for the event is not specified in research, adding uncertainty to the model

Details

The market makes Stefano Napolitano an overwhelming favorite at 1.147 (implied ~87.2%). From the provided records Napolitano is the more experienced player (616 matches, 328-288) versus Tabacco (138 matches, 63-75) and we expect that experience to translate to a clear edge. However, the quoted price overstates that edge: using a conservative true win probability of 75% for Napolitano (reflecting career win-rates, surface versatility, and modestly better form/experience) the fair odds should be ~1.333. At the current market price of 1.147 the expected return is negative (EV = 0.75*1.147 - 1 = -0.140), so there is no value to back Napolitano here. We therefore recommend no bet because the book price is too short to offer positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Experience gap: Napolitano has far more tour matches and a higher career win rate
• • Market is extremely short on Napolitano (implied ~87%) — likely overstated given available form data
• • Surface/venue not explicit in research; both players have results on hard and clay which reduces drastic surface bias