Stefano Napolitano vs Pol Martin Tiffon

Highlights

• • Napolitano favored at 1.617 but our fair price is ~1.754
• • Surface and mixed recent form create high variance and low conviction

Pros

• + Napolitano has a recent local win and familiarity with event conditions
• + Tiffon’s larger match sample this season suggests baseline reliability

Cons

• - Both players have sparse grass results, making probability estimates noisy
• - Current market for favorite is too short to offer positive expected value

Details

The market prices Stefano Napolitano as the favorite (1.617). We estimate Napolitano's true win probability at ~57% based on the limited data: Napolitano has played fewer matches this season with a mixed 10-14 record but a recent win in Biella; Pol Martin Tiffon has a stronger overall season record (28-22) and grass experience but his most recent results on clay were losses. Surface is grass, where both have limited sample sizes, increasing variance. At our 57% estimate the fair decimal price is ~1.754, which is longer than the current 1.617, producing a negative expected value at the available price. The away price (2.36) is close to fair if one assigns Tiffon a ~42% chance, but given Tiffon’s mixed recent form and sparse grass data we do not have enough confidence to claim positive value on him either. Therefore we recommend no bet; value would appear only if Napolitano’s price lengthens to >=1.754 or Tiffon’s price firmed relative to a higher estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Limited grass-surface sample for both players, increasing outcome variance
• • Tiffon has a stronger season record (28-22) vs Napolitano (10-14), reducing conviction in the favorite
• • Current favorite price (1.617) is shorter than our fair price (~1.754) so no positive EV on Napolitano